Year: 2022 | Month: October | Volume 67 | Issue 4s
Economic Assessment and State Regulation of the Agri-industrial Sector in Ukraine: Solutions for Ensuring Food Security (Modeling and Analysis)
Yurii Dziurakh1*
Volodymyr Halanets
Tetiana Kulakovska
Mykola Pugachov
Volodymyr Pugachov
DOI:10.46852/0424-2513.4s.2022.11
Abstract:
The paper studies the dynamics of the relative production and consumption of the main agricultural crops in Ukrainian enterprises for 2017- 2021 years, in particular sunflower. The issues and provisions given in it may be used to analyze existing theoretical positions. Because of aggressive invasion of Russia, Ukraine suffers significant losses in agricultural production. This situation has a negative impact on the provision of agricultural food and food security around the world. In 2022, the war prevented Ukraine from sowing all areas of crops, which in fact, according to various estimates, range from 50% to 75%. Therefore, the issue of providing agricultural products not only to Ukraine, but also to those who import Ukrainian sunflower crops and other crops is of practical interest. In this work the relationship between the volume of sunflower gross harvest and its sown areas on many years research data – more than thirty years has been estimated on the basis of correlation-regression modeling. According to FAO estimates, 25-30% of fields in the 2022-2023 season may be unsown or unharvested in Ukraine. In addition, crop yields are expected to decline. According to some experts, in 2022 in Ukraine the sown area is less than 80% of last year’s figures, and the total sown area has decreased to 3 million hectares. In this work on the basis of the analytical method the forecast of productivity in the conditions of military aggression of Russia against Ukraine at change of sown territories on an example of oilseeds is formed. It is established that price instability restrains the intensification, which increases the yield of oilseeds, but the degree of risk increases too. A set of measures for economic stimulation of agricultural cultivation of oilseeds has been developed, the foundations for the development of partnerships between the state and agrarian business and the population have been formed.
Highlights
- The paper studies the dynamics of the relative production and consumption of the main agricultural crops in Ukrainian enterprises for 2017- 2021 years, in particular sunflower.
- In this work the relationship between the volume of sunflower gross harvest and its sown areas on many years research data – more than thirty years has been estimated on the basis of correlation-regression modeling.
- A set of measures for economic stimulation of agricultural cultivation of oilseeds has been developed, the foundations for the development of partnerships between the state and agrarian business and the population have been formed.
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